A Note on the FMS Waitlist Movement – An aspirant’s analysis

So, the much awaited FMS results are out. Cut-offs for various categories are as follows.

Complete file could be viewed here :  http://fms.edu/sites/default/files/files/shortlisting%20can.pdf

As compared to last year, more or less same ratio (1 : 12.15) has been maintained. Cut off for General category has come down slightly from 98.73 to 98.56 from CAT 2011 to CAT 2012. Similar trends could be observed in the other categories too. Interviews for MBA admissions would be held from March 18th to March 24th. Looking at these numbers, I’ve made an analysis on the wait list movement in FMS admissions. Here is the analysis:

For simplicity’s sake, I have taken General Category as the sample set. If everything goes as per the schedule, by 24th of March, interviews for all the call getters would be completed. FMS is known to announce the results on the last day of the interviews or on the morning of the next day. So, in the worst case, results would be out by 25th of March.

Last year, interviews were held after the results of most of the IIMs were out. So, about 350 out of the 1200 students were not physically present for the interviews. So, effectively, only 850 students were interviewed. And after the results were out, the waitlist moved till 52 after the 9th list was out. So about 150 students(153 to be precise) were offered admission by FMS. Though the movement was not uniform across the 9 lists, it was not an exponential graph. Taking these statistics, a few interesting inferences and predictions could be made this year about the waitlist movement.

Last year’s wait list movement:

WAIT LIST ROUND WAIT LIST NUMBER CLEARED
1 22
2 30
3 35
4 39
5 43
6 46
7 49
8 51
9 52

 

A few important facts that would help in this context are:

(1)  No IIM declared its result before April 10th last year. So, even if we consider a buffer of 10days, IIMs would not disclose the final results before April 1st. So, FMS would be the first institute to declare results(among IIMs, XLRI and FMS)

(2) Waitlists for IIM-A, B, C would move two to three weeks after the results are out. So, IIM-ABC waitlist would move only after April 15th.

(3) Similar numbers could be applied for IIM-L and XLRI too.

(4) An assumption has been made that all (or most of) the call getters would prefer IIM-ABC to FMS and half of the call getters would prefer IIM-L or XLRI to FMS.

(5) If we observe the cut offs for various IIMs, we observe that all IIM-ACL call getters would have percentile higher than the cut off of FMS.

(6) All the assumptions are made based taking waitlist movement of last year as one of the parameters.

So, once results of FMS are out, most of the students with converts would register as seat confirmation in FMS can be made by paying Rs.11000/- and in case of withdrawal, Rs.10000/- would be given. But, when the results of ABC would be out in the first week of April, we might see a lot of people withdraw their registrations. Let us assume that half of the guys who convert FMS would convert A or B or C’s first list. This is because from last year’s statistics, about 350 students had already got admits in IIMs before FMS interviews and the wait list moved by 50%. So, there is a high chance for half of FMS converts to convert A/B/C. So, half of the FMS converts would withdraw on April 1st. This is assuming that the deadline for paying fee in FMS is before IIM results are out. In other case, I suppose that 90% of them would register and the remaining would wait for the IIM results to be out and then register. I’ve chosen a high percentage of people because no one really knows when IIM results would be out and they would not be willing to take a risk by not registering for FMS.

So, out of the 100 converts that are declared by FMS, say only 90 register by April 1st. As assumed, 50% of them convert A/B/C and hence the wait list moves by 45. Even in the remaining 10 people who have waited, let us assume that half of them convert A/B/C. So the effective seats remaining in FMS would be 50. Also L’s results propel a few students to leave FMS. So, effectively, about 55 seats would left over. Generally, first list students are given two weeks of time to register. So, in second week of april, when the second list is out, about 55 waitlisted students would get admits out of which at least one fourth of them would have ABC admits by then. Now, when waitlists in A, B and C move, about 30% of the people would leave FMS. So in total, about 50% of the second list students would take FMS. So, about 25 seats would be filled.

LIST NUMBER SEATS OFFERED SEATS ACCEPTED SEATS LEFT WAIT LIST CLEARED
MAIN LIST 100 45 55 55
FIRST WL 55 25 30 85

 

So, after the second list, 70 seats would be filled and there would still be 30 seats left. So, 30 more students would be sent offers in the third round. From this point, as the IIM-ABC lists would almost be exhausted, the wait list movement would not be huge. IIM-L and XLRI’s results would have some effect on the subsequent wait lists. From last year’s trends, 30 was the wait list after round 2 and 50 at the end of last round. So, about 60% more waitlists are cleared. From the previous analysis, WL85 was the number after the first wait list. So, adding 60% to it, about 50 more people would clear waitlists and get admissions. So, final waitlist would move up to 135.

So, to conclude, WL movement last year stood at around 50 but this year, after taking in various parameters into account, the waitlist movement would cross 120.

P.S : This is a calculated estimate and the author holds no responsibility for the accuracy of the actual result.

All the best FMS call getters 🙂

Sources

– Sravanth Vangara

(The writer is  a resident of Hyderabad and an electrical engineering graduate from National Institute of Technology, Warangal – Class of 2012.  Currently works as a Business Technology Analyst with Deloitte Consulting. Singing and blogging are his hobbies. He subscribes to a religion called Cricket and worship Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid as Gods. Apart from this, he does cricket analytics and is also a Mathematics enthusiast. He blogs here)

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Comments

28 comments

Saurabh bhuwania

Excellent and infact consoling! Such movement estimates keep us going 🙂
Just one rectification: XLRI will be the first to declare the results. I have heard it will be out by 20th of March!!

TheMindBlogger

Yeah yeah. My mistake. I was more concerned about the ABC results because those results would decide how the wait lists would move. 🙂
All the best 🙂

Shashank

Great Article dude.
Just as I am anxious, they have declared the cutoffs (I do clear it.) but have not send an individual mail if you are being shortlisted or the date and time of the interview. Are they going to do so.
It gets me anxious as the results from the old IIMs have not been that good even after securing a good percentile.

TheMindBlogger

Best thing to do for you would be to fill the form, send it to FMS and wait for your interview date. From my understanding, if you have obtained more than 50%ile in each section and an overall of 98.56+ %ile ( GEN), then you should be getting a call.
In case you have not sent FMS the form(with the exclosures) through post, send it ASAP. If you've already sent it, start preparing for GD,Extempore and PI.
All the best bro. 🙂

Shashank

OK. Thanks dude. I have not send it. I will send it tomorrow. I thought they will release the shortlist mail.
Thanks for the information man.

TheMindBlogger

They may release it. Even I don't have information. (In fact, I don't have a call either 😛 ).. But I was just asking you to be on the safer side 🙂

Shashank

Ya man, That was something I didn't read in the Cutoff Document released.
Thanks a ton.
I have sent this today and hoping that it reaches there by 28th, the last date.

TheMindBlogger

Yeah no issues. It would reach 🙂 🙂
ATB for your GD-Extempore-PI 🙂

sai

Sir, with due respect, I must say, this is good as well as kind of weird statistics, it shows, how much u know about wait list movements, it seems cat n mba is in ur blood. can u plz throw some light on FMS SC category waitlist movement, I mean what is the scene there? and is it good to go for FMS after 30months pre mba work exp in IT sector. plz advice.

thanks.

TheMindBlogger

From my estimate, wait list in SC category in FMS this year would be about 30. And yes, it is a great college to study with the profile you said. 🙂

All the best.

naresh

how much percentile should a candidate from st category secure to get admission into the iims or fms?

Havingnot

Indeed it is a great analysis. But one parameter that has been not taken into consideration is that last year nearly 200 person did not appear for GD /PI as they already cleared A/B/C. So out of 200 assuming 50% is general & 50 % of them will clear FMS also. So another chance of 50 movement. let take the figure as 30(playing safe) so we can expect 120 (mentioned in blog) + 30 = 150 wait list movement

p.s: entirely my assumption.

TheMindBlogger

Hello, thank you for commenting. Kindly note that this point was taken as one of the parameters :"So, about 350 out of the 1200 students were not physically present for the interviews" You could refer to the above line 🙂
Thank you.

spygma

Very good analysis..Can you please speculate about OBC movements considering the fact that more than 200 obc's did not turn for FMS last time and the no. of seats for OBC s in ABC alone is 324.?
I would be grateful if you could do analysis for this.

TheMindBlogger

27% of the seats are reserved for OBCs. I made analysis for GEN category which has about 50% of the seats. So, taking simple ratio's case, the wait list movement would be about 60-65. Thank you. 🙂

hmmmm

buddy, great analysis…for OBC,at FMS, generally the waitlist movement is always between 2/3rd and 3/4th of what it is for general category..so going by that analysis…the waitlist movement for movement for obs should be somewhere 70-80…dont you think ??

TheMindBlogger

Yeah. Even I am expecting a minimum of 60. 70 also looks possible. I just wanted to state the lower limit to avoid false expectations

Rahul

Can you also please shine some light on movements of SC category?
There are 30 seats for SC.
Iam waitlisted at 11

pps

very nice analysis. thanx. can u plz, do the same analysis for CW category. (defence dependents ).? Does their list also move ?
PPS