FMS Delhi Fraternity Forecasts The US Presidential Elections 2016 - Who Will Win

The Management students at the Faculty of Management Studies – University of Delhi (FMS-Delhi) broke the stereotype of MBA being all about case studies and academics by forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections.

Completing a research paper under the mentorship of Dr. Pankaj Sinha, FMS Delhi final year students have predicted the results of the 2016 US Presidential Elections. The research also elaborated the impact of the expected outcome on various macroeconomic variables of U.S. economy post elections. These research papers have been circulated and published in renowned international economics forums like IDEAS, New Economics Papers, Econpapers etc.

The Cambridge University Press is currently reviewing for “British Journal of Political Science”, research entitled “Forecasting United States Presidential election 2016 using multiple regression models”, conducted by Dr. Pankaj Sinha, Ankit Nagarnaik, Kislay Raj and Vineeta Suman. The paper points to a victory for Clinton in the presidential elections with a vote share of around 48%, while Donald Trump being restricted to a vote share of around 40%. The students at Faculty of Management Studies also extended the study by applying various statistical techniques through their paper “Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model” (Dr. Pankaj Sinha, Sandeep Srinivas, Anik Paul and Gunjan Chaudhari), under review at “Journal of Prediction Markets”, by the University of Buckingham Press, to gain wider international acceptance for their study on the prediction. This also predicts a victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, vote share being around 45.5% and 39.5% respectively for the two candidates.

“We discussed several factors while developing a prediction model for the election. As opposed to what several naysayers are stating, our research proves that in spite of the weight of the prolonged incumbency of the Democratic party upon her, Clinton will not have difficulties in defeating Trump in the upcoming elections.”, says Dr. Sinha while discussing the study.

In both the papers, the results show a remarkable deviation from the contemporary discussions that economic indicators like the unemployment rate and healthcare spending play an important role in voting pattern. Instead, it is a combination of variables like Presidential job approval and contemporary scandals that influence the voting decision.

Links to papers:

Title: Forecasting United States Presidential Election 2016 Using Multiple Regression Models

Pankaj Sinha, Ankit Nagarnaik, Kislay Raj and Vineeta Suman

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74641/1/MPRA_paper_74641.pdf

Title: Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model

Pankaj Sinha, Sandeep Srinivas, Anik Paul, Gunjan Chaudhari

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74618/1/MPRA_paper_74618.pdf