“We discussed several factors while developing a prediction model for the election. As opposed to what several naysayers are stating, our research proves that in spite of the weight of the prolonged incumbency of the Democratic party upon her, Clinton will not have difficulties in defeating Trump in the upcoming elections.”, says Dr. Sinha while discussing the study.
In both the papers, the results show a remarkable deviation from the contemporary discussions that economic indicators like the unemployment rate and healthcare spending play an important role in voting pattern. Instead, it is a combination of variables like Presidential job approval and contemporary scandals that influence the voting decision.
Links to papers:
Title: Forecasting United States Presidential Election 2016 Using Multiple Regression Models
Pankaj Sinha, Ankit Nagarnaik, Kislay Raj and Vineeta Suman
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74641/1/MPRA_paper_74641.pdf
Title: Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model
Pankaj Sinha, Sandeep Srinivas, Anik Paul, Gunjan Chaudhari
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74618/1/MPRA_paper_74618.pdf
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