Expecting big names on the recruiter list in your college this year? Do you want to intern at big consulting firms or as a product management intern at consumer internet companies? One of the things that makes these companies stand out is their recruitment practices. Case studies, application-based scenario questions, market sizing and guesstimates, etc. are some of the most common questions asked.
Question
Estimate the number of refrigerators sold in India every year.
Interviewee: Let me ask some questions to clarify the problem statement: Should we consider domestic refrigerators only or should we include commercial refrigerators too?
Interviewer: For this question, include only domestic refrigerators.
Interviewee: I would like to approach this question from the demand side.
Total population of India = 130 crore
Let us take a number of members in a family = 4
Total Households = 130/4 = 32.5 crore
For Metro/Tier I class households
Percentage of poor: middle class: rich = 20%:60%:20%
For Tier II/III class households
Percentage of poor: middle class: rich = 40%:50%:10%
For Village Households
Percentage of poor: middle class: rich = 60%:38%:2%
Market Penetration
|
Metro/ Tier I |
Tier II/ III |
Villages |
| Poor % |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Middle-class % |
50% |
40% |
0 |
| Rich % |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Absolute Refrigerators Numbers = Sum of Penetration * No of households in each segment
|
Metro/ Tier I |
Tier II/ III |
Villages |
| HouseHolds |
0.2*32.5 = 6.5 Cr |
0.15*32.5 = 4.875(Let’s take it 5) |
0.65*32.5 = 21.125 (Let's take it 21) |
| Refrigerators Penetration |
0.5*0.6+0.2 = 50% |
0.4*0.5+0.2 = 30% |
2% |
| Total |
0.5*6.5 = 3.25 |
0.3*5 = 1.5 |
0.02*21 = 0.42 |
Total number of refrigerators = 3.25+1.5+0.42 = 5.17 crore
As the question asks the number of refrigerators sold every year, we have to take care of following points too:
- i) People buying refrigerators due to replacement (as their old machine is not working)
- ii) People buying refrigerators as their first refrigerator
Let's take the average life of Refrigerators= 10 years
Assumed growth rate = 5%
Refrigerators sold in a year = refrigerators due to replacement + New Demand due to growth
= (Total refrigerators ( i.e. market size) / Avg Life) + (Growth rate * Total machines (i.e. market size))
= (5.17/10)+(5.17*0.05) crore
= 0.775 crores
= 77.5 lakhs
***
Other Guesstimates You Can Solve On Your Own
- Estimate the volume of a plane (Boeing 747)
- Estimate the size of the diaper market in India
- Estimate the total number of ATMs in India
- Estimate the number of hours spent on smartphones by all Indians in a day.
- Estimated the monthly revenue of a hair salon
Related Links:
All India Open CAT Mock Test In Association With TIWYS - 2021