Overall, it is a complicated piece of legislation, and it is difficult for the common man to wrap his head around how exactly this new regime is going to impact him. I am in no way implying that this is bad and ineffective in any way. It is imperative to incorporate the opinions of all the stakeholders in a democratic process, and the government has done a commendable job of doing so.
Prima facie, based on analysis made by several media outlets, it seems like there would be a small decrease of around 5-7% in the overall tax burden if we consider the basket of items usually purchased by the entire household. So this should be good news. However, this is where the way we are wired as human beings start kicking in.
It is fairly well known in behavioural economics that losses loom larger than gains, i.e., losing 100 rupees makes you more unhappy than gaining 100 rupees makes you happy. This psychological underpinning of humans is known as reference dependence which is one of the fundamental principles of Prospect theory as proposed by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and his colleague Amos Tversky.
In the case of GST, the tax rates of some commodities have gone up while for others the tax rates have come down. This means that losses attributed to increasing in tax rates and gains attributed to decrease in tax rates happen simultaneously. However, human nature is such that the impact of the losses gets blown out of proportions. So, even though the GST might result in a net gain for the consumer, the common man might still feel that things have gotten more expensive than before. This might make the common man dislike the legislation. However, common man’s disapproval is the not the biggest problem the government would face.
Further, studies in behavioural macroeconomics have shown that today’s inflationary expectations would result in tomorrow’s actual inflation. This means that Inflation could happen simply based on the subjective belief that things have gotten expensive, irrespective of whether they have actually gotten expensive or not. So there is a fairly good chance of higher inflation in the coming months. And inflation is never good for the government in power.
Inflation might also occur due to a profit-seeking behaviour of retailers themselves. Prices of goods and services are usually sticky. Further, upward revisions of prices are usually are more likely than downward revisions, again due to reference dependence. Why reduce the price when the customer is already willing to pay the current price! So there is a threat of businesses not passing on the benefit due to a reduction in tax rates.
I know most of you want to point me towards the anti-profiteering clause where businesses are, by law, expected to pass on the benefits due to tax cuts to the consumers, failing which their GST registration would get cancelled. However, whether it is even possible to detect profit mongering behaviour is doubtful. For products which are governed by the MRP, it might be relatively easy to monitor profit mongering. For the service sector, however, especially those running on a net loss (like Ola, Uber, Flipkart), profit mongering detection would not be easy. Further, the regulation just says "cancellation of GST registration" which is an extreme measure. The penalty is not proportional to the crime. This usually results in the legislation being applied only in extreme cases, thus diluting its purpose.
The macroeconomic reality of a country is shaped by the amalgamation of individual behaviours of millions of consumers and retailers alike. How our brains are wired to process information would, therefore, have a major role to play in the success or failure of GST.
Could there have been a better time to start GST? Definitely not. Our economy was booming, and inflation was quite low. This was the perfect time to take such risks. Whether the risks will pay off or not is totally up to how the government manages, amongst other things, public perception and behaviour. I believe there is a long way ahead and much like the video that played on the screens of the central hall, this is only the dawn of GST.
By Vinay Kumar Kalakbandi, Assistant Professor, Institute of Management Technology Hyderabad
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